AGP Executive Report

Energy & Industry: Ecopetrol signed a new six-year collective bargaining agreement with its main union USO, starting Jan. 1, 2026, and also reached 66 deals with other unions covering working conditions, health/education benefits, and diversity initiatives. Security & Politics: Colombia’s ELN announced a unilateral ceasefire from June 20 to June 23, overlapping the June 21 presidential election, saying it will suspend attacks on military forces and calling for free voting without foreign interference. Labor & Operations: The ELN ceasefire lands amid criticism that past pauses let armed groups regroup and strengthen rural control—an issue voters are watching closely. Biometrics & Public Safety: The U.S. State Department is moving to buy Clearview AI facial recognition licenses for Colombian police units via a foreign law enforcement assistance program, reigniting debate over biometric surveillance. Logistics & Travel Tech: LATAM Airlines partnered with Meili to let travelers book car rentals directly inside LATAM’s website and app, aiming to cut third-party redirects and boost loyalty integration. Electrification Trend: A survey of executives across 18 countries found 90% expect operations to be largely electrified by 2035, with Colombia included among surveyed markets. Construction & Supply Chains: A Chinese scaffolding supplier says it’s expanding one-stop scaffolding supply services for Middle East and South America, explicitly naming Colombia among the growth markets.

Cease-fire Ahead of Vote: Colombia’s ELN rebels announced a unilateral cease-fire from June 20 to June 23, asking fighters to stop attacks on the military ahead of the June 21 presidential runoff, while warning against foreign interference. Election Stakes: The race pits Sen. Iván Cepeda (ally of President Gustavo Petro) against Abelardo de la Espriella, endorsed by U.S. President Donald Trump, with critics saying past cease-fires have helped armed groups regroup and tighten control in rural areas. Security & Industry Risk: The broader conflict backdrop matters for Colombia’s rural supply chains, where extortion and threats can disrupt businesses and investment. Mining & Cross-Border Pressure: Separately, reporting links U.S.-Venezuela action against the Tren de Aragua leader to pressure around Venezuela’s illegal gold mines—an issue that can spill into regional logistics and security for extractive industries. Colombia Mining Expansion: Energy Today Corp. says it completed design for a new processing plant at its Palmichala Gold Project in Antioquia, targeting a 15x jump in monthly ore processing capacity. Urban Cooling Tech: Vertical gardens are gaining traction across Latin America as cities look for practical ways to cut heat stress.

World Cup-linked industry buzz: FIFA kicked off World Cup 2026 with a star-studded opening in Mexico City, while in Colombia the Panini sticker era ends as FIFA signs Fanatics to lead global collectibles—an industry shift that could reshape how fans buy, trade, and engage with official merchandise. Energy & fuels: A new look at ethanol blends highlights where E100 is actually viable at scale, with Brazil standing out for its flex-fuel ecosystem—useful context for Colombia’s transport decarbonization debate. Oil & logistics: US EIA data shows Iraq jumping to 6th among crude suppliers to the US, with Colombia listed among top Latin sources—another reminder of how regional production swings affect refinery planning. Cuba aid supply chain: Colombia’s ARC Caribe delivered nearly 100 tons of humanitarian cargo to Havana, including solar panels and medical supplies, coordinated across multiple Colombian ministries and agencies. Finance infrastructure: A Caribbean banking analysis warns correspondent banking is at a crossroads as stablecoin rails and new US rules accelerate cross-border settlement. Security & trade routes: A corruption court upheld detention in a major cocaine trafficking and money laundering case tied to logistics linking Ecuador/Colombia to European ports. Climate pressure on labor: A study flags heat stress cutting agricultural work capacity and threatening incomes and food security—directly relevant to Colombia’s farm productivity planning.

Drug War Update: Colombia’s military says it killed nine members of the Gulf Clan in a bombing in Chocó, as the country heads toward the June 21 presidential runoff and Petro’s administration pushes talks with the cartel. Cross-Border Security: Venezuela confirmed the death of Tren de Aragua leader “Niño Guerrero” in a joint US-Venezuela operation, with the US framing it as a direct warning in the war on drugs. Energy & Trade Watch: EIA data shows Iraq jumped to sixth place among crude suppliers to the US, while Colombia remains a key supplier at about 154,000 bpd. Food & Labor Risk: A study warns heat stress is cutting agricultural workers’ income and work capacity, with climate vulnerability high across major food-exporting countries including Colombia. Biotech & Industry Networking: REDBIO Colombia 2025 is credited with turning Medellín into a regional biotech and bioeconomy hub, linking universities, DeepTech and real-world production challenges. World Cup Economy Angle: Real estate players are tracking which host markets can actually capture World Cup spending, with New York-New Jersey under scrutiny over hotel demand and short-term rental rules. Alcohol Market Shift: IWSR forecasts global alcohol volumes will keep falling through 2031 as consumers drink less, including in traditional markets.

Colombia Security: Colombia’s military said it killed nine members of the Gulf Clan in a bombing in Chocó, as the country heads to the June 21 runoff and the government pushes to show it can curb guerrilla and cartel violence. US–Venezuela Counter-Narcotics: The leader of Tren de Aragua, “Niño Guerrero,” was reported killed in a joint US-Venezuela operation in Bolívar, with Washington framing it as a direct escalation in the war on drugs and Caracas citing intelligence and tech support. Regional Politics: A new wave of criticism in Colombia centers on claims of US backing for right-leaning candidates, with opponents calling it foreign interference ahead of the runoff. Trade & Industry Tech: Rain’s “stablecoin economy” report says LatAm transacted about $1.5T via stablecoins from 2022–2025, highlighting lower cross-border fees and rapid growth of crypto cards in Colombia. Aviation & Connectivity: ALMA Air returned seaplanes to Colombia, landing in Medellín and planning expansion toward Cartagena in 2026. Energy Markets: US jet fuel output hit record highs as refinery runs and yield shifts respond to Middle East disruptions, lifting prices. Poverty & Social Impact: Colombia reported 1.8M people exited monetary poverty in 2025, with extreme poverty below 10%.

Security & Industry Impact: Colombia’s military says a bombing in Chocó killed nine members of the Gulf Clan, as the country heads toward a June 21 runoff and the government pushes to show it can curb guerrilla violence tied to drug trafficking and illegal mining. Cross-border Crime Crackdown: The US and Venezuela announced the killing of Tren de Aragua leader “Niño Guerrero” (Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores) in Bolívar, with Washington calling it a warning to “narco-terrorists” and highlighting the gang’s links across Colombia and the region. Policy Debate on Illicit Economies: Colombian academics from Universidad de los Andes argue the next drug strategy should start with reducing poverty and violence in coca- and cannabis-affected territories, not only supply reduction. Business & Services: BPrO’s CX Summit marks its 25th anniversary, with contact center and BPO leaders pushing for growth through academic-industry partnerships. Aviation & Connectivity: ALMA Air delivered Colombia’s first commercial seaplane in Medellín after 70 years, aiming to expand amphibious routes to Cartagena in 2026.

EV Charging Push in Colombia: A new C40 Cities/IFC report maps how Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and India can scale public EV charging, with investment needs estimated at about USD 3.8B by 2035 and a focus on city-led regulation and financing. Drug Policy Debate: Academics from Universidad de los Andes argue Colombia’s next government should rethink coca and cannabis strategy by prioritizing poverty and violence reduction in affected territories, not only supply cuts. Security & Governance: A US–Colombia security brief warns illegal armed groups have expanded across more than half of Colombian municipalities by diversifying illicit revenue and consolidating control, urging a territorially tailored security approach. Humanitarian Supply Chain: Colombia sent a ship with 100 tons of food, medicines, hospital supplies, electrical materials and solar panels to Cuba, adding to prior aid shipments. Climate Risk for Industry: Colombia is flagged among tourist cities at risk from extreme heat as El Niño strengthens, raising pressure on cooling, logistics and public services. Food Prices & Imports: Curaçao lawmakers propose lowering grocery costs via cheaper produce imports from Colombia and the Dominican Republic, targeting fruits and vegetables.

El Niño Watch for Colombia: Colombia officially entered its El Niño season on June 11, with Ideam and the environment ministry confirming Pacific ocean conditions are now established; water reserves are about 11% below recommended levels, raising stakes for heat and electricity generation. Currency & Consumer Signals: The Colombian peso strengthened sharply as the TRM fell to about COP 3,476 per US dollar, one of the lowest levels so far this year, after the dollar lost more than COP 160 since early June—good news for importers and travel budgets. World Cup Boost for Hospitality: Asobares estimates the 2026 World Cup could add about US$160M to Colombia’s bars, restaurants and nightlife, projecting sales up 23.5% from June 11 to July 19, with June driving most of the impact. Trade & Compliance at the Border: US Customs in Cincinnati seized a shipment from Colombia headed to Puerto Rico, stopping counterfeit luxury watches and designer accessories with a combined MSRP above US$19M. Payments Innovation for LATAM: Ripple and Bitso expanded their partnership to support enterprise stablecoin settlement across the US–Mexico corridor, integrating Bitso’s MXN-backed stablecoin onto the XRP Ledger for faster cross-border liquidity.

El Niño Watch for Colombia: Colombia’s Environment Ministry says El Niño arrived about three months early and, if forecasts hold, will be among the most intense since 1950, with 96% odds it persists into Nov–Jan and 63% odds of “very strong” intensity—raising concerns for rainfall, drought risk, and hydroelectric power supply. Energy & Industry Signals: A World Economic Forum update highlights 100 “Technology Pioneers” building the software and physical infrastructure for AI at scale, including energy and advanced manufacturing needs. Aerospace Upgrade: Israel Aerospace Industries reports Sri Lanka’s upgraded Kfir fleet (Kfir C12) completed its first flight, adding avionics, a glass cockpit, and mission-system updates to improve readiness and enable precision munitions. Agri-Commodity Pulse: Corn futures fell on higher USDA supply expectations, while export sales to key buyers—including Japan and Colombia—remain active. Gaming Expansion in Colombia: Spanish supplier Zitro says its FANTASY cabinet is now live in Colombia at Casino San Remo in Medellín, marking another step in its regional rollout. Trade Enforcement: U.S. Customs seized a Colombia-origin shipment of counterfeit luxury watches and designer accessories headed to Puerto Rico, underscoring ongoing IP enforcement.

World Cup kickoff and Colombia’s stakes: The 2026 FIFA World Cup begins June 11 with Mexico vs. South Africa, expanding to 48 teams and 104 matches across the US, Canada and Mexico—while Colombian fans are already tracking live betting odds and match narratives as the tournament starts. Trade and enforcement: U.S. Customs in Cincinnati seized a shipment from Colombia headed to Puerto Rico with counterfeit luxury watches, sunglasses and branded accessories worth over $19M at retail. Colombia politics abroad: A report says Trump blocked a planned meeting between Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, escalating diplomatic tension. Energy and industry signals: A separate oil-patch update points to record US jet-fuel output and rising drilling activity, with rig counts steady-to-up in key regions. Health and services: A Colombia-focused medical tourism piece highlights Bucaramanga’s push to attract international patients via coordinated care pathways. Local business and civic life: In Orlando, Andretti Indoor Karting & Games will host Colombia’s presidential runoff voting on June 21, turning a private venue into a community hub.

El Niño Heat Risk: NOAA says El Niño is likely to emerge between May and July, with Barranquilla flagged among the top global cities exposed to heat stress—raising pressure on Colombia’s preparedness for hotter, drier conditions. EV Charging Gap: Colombia’s electric vehicle registrations surged (5,001 units in a month; 19,542 Jan–May), but charging infrastructure remains the bottleneck, while hybrids still lead in total units. Agri-Food Trade & Coffee Policy: Italy’s pavilion at Alimentec Anuga Select Colombia highlighted a 24% jump in Colombian imports of Italian agri-food products; meanwhile, Venezuela approved its first coffee promotion law aimed at protecting producers and curbing smuggling. Logistics & Air Cargo: Cargojet Airways will start weekly non-scheduled cargo flights linking Miami/Caracas/Georgetown with Medellín for DHL Express, signaling continued growth in regional air freight connectivity. World Cup Business Angle: Ticket prices in key U.S. host cities are reportedly exceeding monthly mortgage costs, underscoring how the tournament is reshaping consumer spending and local services. Security & Industry Impact: A week of coverage also points to kidnapping-for-ransom as a growing “industry,” warning that insecurity can push investors away.

Energy & Aviation Markets: Jet fuel prices are rising as Middle East disruptions push refiners to boost jet-fuel yields; U.S. output hit record highs with refinery runs and yield shifts, while domestic inventories stay above average. Oil & Gas Activity: Baker Hughes reports 563 active drilling rigs in the U.S., up slightly week-on-week, with regional gains in Texas offset by declines elsewhere. Colombia Politics & Governance: Leftist presidential hopeful Ivan Cepeda says he will recognize Colombia’s runoff results even if they don’t favor him, but urges peaceful protest if rights aren’t upheld. Corporate & Capital Markets: Investor-alert coverage highlights Globant securities-fraud class action deadlines tied to reported Latin America revenue weakness amid political and macroeconomic strain. Industrial Manufacturing (Construction Supply Chain): Tecnoglass, based in Barranquilla, declared a Q2 2026 dividend of $0.15 per share, underscoring ongoing cash returns from its architectural glass and window operations. Food & Innovation: UNSW researchers report an ultrasound-based “espresso-like” coffee method using room-temperature water, aiming to cut energy and time for industrial coffee production. Agriculture & Environment Policy: Colombia’s cattle traceability push continues to target deforestation-linked beef supply chains. Energy Transition Context: Commentary on Colombia’s fossil-fuel dependence reduction efforts frames mixed progress as the country prepares for leadership change.

Cattle Traceability Law: Colombia passed a landmark cattle tracking law requiring deforestation-free beef supply chains, linking livestock tracking, land ownership and forest monitoring to keep illegally cleared pasture out of supermarkets and exports. Mining & Metals Update: GoldMining’s La Mina project in Colombia received a 2026 PEA boost, with after-tax NPV cited at US$1.0B (base case) and up to US$1.8B in a spot scenario, supported by a 15,000 t/day open-pit plan. Security & Industry Tech: Colombia’s FPV drone threat is evolving from lone strikes to swarm-style assaults, raising new operational demands for defense and critical infrastructure protection. Packaging & Processing Trade: Expo Pack México 2026 drew 18,400 attendees and 740 exhibitors, spotlighting food, pharma, industrial manufacturing and reusable packaging trends relevant to regional supply chains. Energy Markets Watch: US jet fuel output hit record highs as refinery runs and yield shifts respond to Middle East disruptions, a reminder of how geopolitics can quickly move industrial input costs.

Cattle Traceability Push: Colombia passed a landmark cattle traceability law on June 4 to curb beef linked to illegal deforestation, aiming to better track whether cattle grazed in protected forests and align with EU deforestation rules. Data-Center Workforce Signal: Aligned Data Centers earned Great Place To Work certification for the second straight year across the US, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Mexico, highlighting continued investment in workforce development for digital infrastructure roles. Connected Mobility Upgrade: Iteris’ BlueTOAD Spectra CV roadside unit received OmniAir certification, supporting interoperable V2X deployments and reducing the need for multiple field devices. Mining Update: Orosur reported new mineralized zones at its APTA prospect in Colombia’s Mid-Cauca gold belt, with follow-up work flagged after drilling results improved prospectivity. Logistics Expansion: DP World expanded Mexico City air freight capabilities after receiving IATA certification for freight forwarding, strengthening nearshoring-linked cross-border service. Payments for Merchants: dLocal broadened BNPL Fuse across Latin America and other emerging markets with eligibility screening, payer data enrichment, and centralized refund orchestration to lift checkout conversion. Oil & Energy Context: A separate energy report notes jet fuel output and refinery yield shifts tied to Middle East disruptions, while broader market coverage points to how geopolitics are reshaping regional energy flows.

Construction & Ground Technologies: Vinci Construction is set to expand its Geoquest ground technologies business by acquiring Grupo TDM’s geosynthetics division in Peru, with activity across Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Mexico; the deal targets waterproofing, soil stabilization, drainage and erosion protection, and is expected to close by end-2026. Trade & Fisheries Policy: Colombia’s Ambassador Santiago Wills, chairing WTO fisheries subsidies talks, submitted a revised draft agreement ahead of MC12 in Geneva, aiming to finally curb illegal and excessive fishing subsidies after more than two decades. Energy & Supply Chains: COP31 incoming president Chris Bowen told AFP the Middle East conflict shows why countries must “get off fossil fuels,” as energy anxiety complicates climate negotiations. U.S. Tariffs Watch: USTR proposed new Section 301 forced-labor tariffs on imports from 60 economies, with rates of 10% or 12.5% depending on each country’s progress, and comments due July 6. Colombia Business & Real Estate: Bogotá ranked as Latin America’s most cost-competitive city for premium office fit-outs, with lower design and engineering costs cited as a key driver. Food Industry Trade: Italy’s agri-food delegation is set to participate in Alimentec/Anuga Select Colombia 2026 in Bogotá, highlighting strong recent growth in Colombian imports of Italian food and beverages.

Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. Trade Representative proposed new Section 301 tariffs tied to forced-labor import rules, with rates of 10% or 12.5% covering imports from 60 economies, plus a special textile mechanism; comments are open until July 6 and a hearing is set for July 7. Construction & Ground Engineering: Vinci’s Geoquest agreed to buy Grupo TDM’s geosynthetics division, operating across Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, to expand ground engineering solutions for infrastructure and mining. Foreign Investment Watch: Colombia saw foreign direct investment rise to US$3.8B in Q1 2026, up 34.4% year-on-year, though it remains below prior years’ levels. Packaging & Processing: EXPO PACK México 2026 drew 18,400 attendees and 6,100 exhibitors, highlighting food, pharma, industrial manufacturing and other sectors driving regional packaging demand. Energy & Industry Signals: Jet fuel output hit record highs in the U.S. as refinery runs and yield shifts increased exports, while drilling activity showed mixed regional rig counts. Mining Safety: Reports point to a deadly coal mine explosion in central Colombia, underscoring ongoing risks in extractive operations.